TRAFFICAdvancing

Flow Instability Detection

Early-warning signals of congestion onset and speed-drop events in road networks, before deterioration becomes visible in standard traffic monitoring. Median lead time: 98.5 minutes on METR-LA dataset.

Validation Results

METR-LA Dataset
Sensors20
Coverage period119 days
Resolution5 minutes
Coverage20.55%
Median lead time98.5 minutes
Retrospective · proxy ground truth (FCR events)
Benchmark note: AUC-PR comparisons between detector classes are methodologically invalid for early warning evaluation. CANAREON is a precursor detector — it fires before events. AUC-PR for precursor detectors is structurally lower than for event correlators. See the Science page for full benchmark methodology.

Cross-domain generalisation in progress. Preprocessing refinement underway.

Operational Impact

98.5 minutes of median advance warning means traffic management centres can pre-position incident response units, adjust upstream signal timing, and pre-warn downstream routes before congestion develops into gridlock.

CANAREON detects early instability signals of congestion — not the congestion event itself. Cross-domain generalisation in progress.

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